Wimbledon Men's Preview 2012

In my Women's prediction thread, i noted how the WTA had finally refound a degree of consistency and stability at the top of the game, yet my predictions for the men's draw will buck those same trends which have been a feature of the ATP since the rise of Fedal and then the emergence of Djokovic, by making what some might call "crazy" decisions.


Irrelevant of the draw, the history books beckon of any of the top 3 manage to win the Wimbledon title. Djokovic enters Federer like dominace at the fast majors with a win here, whilst the Spaniard Nadal does the RG/Wimbledon double thrice, not bad for a "clay courter". The real history though lies with Federer ( nearly every win see's him breaking some sort of record) should he win, the number one ranking is his again tieing Sampras for most weeks, another major lengthens his lead to 17, six over Nadal at 11, and strengthens his argument for GOAT and another year end no.1 finish.


To see any hope for players outside of the top 3 HAS to be dependant on the draw, so lets take a look and see what upsets we might see over the next 2 weeks at SW19:

Top Half


First Quarter- Djokovic is on a 9 consecutive SF streak, and bar big hitting Tomas Berdych in the quaterfinal, his road to the semi's is relatively block free. Former no.1 Ferrero is a tough opening match, but Novak will have too much in the tank over five sets for the 32 year old Spaniard. Towards the Czech's end, Gasquet looms as a possible candidate to spring an upset and make the Djokovic QF, but the safe money is on Berdych who often saves his best tennis for the quicker lawns of the All England Club. Pick of the first rounds are the top seeds matches. Djoko/Ferrero and the battle of the ball bashers Gulbis/Berdych.

Winner - Novak Djokovic


Second Quarter-  6 time champion Roger Federer has the easiest opening round on paper against clay favoring Spaniard Ramos, Llodra is too old to challange RF in round 2, so Muller could be his shock in the third. Simon on grass is a nice fourth round, opening up a potential QF with Tipsarevic. The 2 ranked Serb will have to make it through Nalbandian in his opening match, and potentially Isner in the round of 16 to get there, and nothing tells me he should be banked on to get through those tough ties. Isner/Mahut do battle again in the second round, and lets hope they finish more in the vein of last year rather than the 2010 marathon.

Winner - Federer ( over Nalbandian in a turn back the clocks moment)


Bottom Half


Third Quarter- British hopeful Murray leads the 3rd Quarter, looking to make it one better than his last 3 efforts and make his first SW19 final. Unfortunately for him, getting there will be a nightmare. Davydenko in the first will be easier than most expect but 3 consecutive big servers in Karlovic, Anderson and Raonic is too much of a shootfest for fans to be confident. Raonic will be that guy. On the other side of the quarter, Del Potro and Ferrer are the highest seeds, but unsuited to the grass. Roddick could swoop in for the dream run to the semi's where it's anyones ball game.

Winner- Andy Roddick


Fourth Quarter- Nadal once again takes the uncomfortable position at the bottom of the draw, and would have much preferred Djokovic's route to the final. He faces an awkward looking third round with Haas or Kolschreiber both of whom performed strongly in Halle last week. Things start looking better after that, but Lopez serving well on grass isn't a formality either. A Tsonga/Hewitt opening round will test the charismatic frenchmans injured thumb, whilst Melzer and Wawrinka are other tricky customers in his section. Tsonga's efforts last year in making the semi's make him my favourite for this section of the draw (fitness dependant), with Nadal suffering a rare first week loss to Haas or Kolschreiber in R3.

Winner- Jo Wilfried Tsonga


Semi Finals


Federer bts Djokovic in a high quality four set match reminiscent of their RG encounter in 2011
Tsonga bts Roddick in a five set serve fest, heartbreak for A-Rod who blows his last shot at a Wimbledon title.


Final

Federer avenges his loss to Tsonga by winning a four set tussle in the final, and recapturing the no.1 ranking once again. A familiar sight?










DJT

Wimbledon Women's Preview 2012

Looking ahead to the womens singles at Wimbledon this year, and for the first time since 2010 and Serena, the WTA looks a lot more settled and stabilised, with a successful and proven number one star in the shape of Maria Sharapova. That combined with the continued steady play of other front runners like Azarenka and Kvitova, and the top of the womens game looks as solid as it has been in the last four or five years.


Heading into SW19 this stability takes on an added meaning, with this particular event having been dominated by very few women, 2 women in particular going by the names of Venus and Serena. Between them, the sisters have been involved in 10 of the last 12 finals, winning 9 titles, 5 for Venus and 4 for little sister. The only other previous champions in this years field are last years winner Kvitova, and Sharapova who's 2004 win at 17 kickstarted her career, which has now come full circle back to number 1 in time for the event where it all started.
Looking past these 4 women, obviously Azarenka can't be counted out in what looks to be her career season to date, whilst grass court lovers Bartoli and Pironkova could be the dark horses for a place in the final.


Predictions based on grass court history are all well and good, but as we all know the draw can and has curtailed many dream finals (Sharapova, Serena anyone?) and meant that the unexpected does happen, even at one of the most consistently predictable events. Looking at it , and one quarter could be anyone's:

Top Half


First Quater- Unless Lisicki recaptures her form from the grass last year, Sharapova's road to the quarters looks relatively comfortable, and i expect her to defy the possible bannana skin R2 by beating Venus Williams slayer Tsvetana Pironkova in 2 comfortable sets. Past that, Kerber looks good to meet her as the seeded quartefinalist. I expect Clijsters to fight hard, but that it's too soon for her to beat Kerber on her worst surface. Floaters in this part of the draw are Mchale who's had some big wins this year, and Makarova who comes alive on grass beating Kvitova in Eastbourne last week, after winning that title back in 2010.

Winner- Maria Sharapova


Second Quarter- Every slam throws up that crazy quarter that nobody would like to call, but here's my shot at it. Venus Williams is the 5 time champ, but her fatigue inducing disease makes her too unpredictable to back, whilst Stosur as one of the top seeds in this section is about as home on grass as she would be in the Siberian Winter. The solid Radwanska is the highest seed but has flattered to deceive at the majors and not always reproduced her winning tournament tennis on the biggest stage. Li Na certainly has the game for grass, and might be freed from the shackled of being French open champion. Look for her to make a deep run this fortnight. Interesting match up's see A-Rad face Venus in R2 again, whilst Stosur/Navarro could make it a triple of first round losses for the unlucky Aussie.

Winner- Li Na


Bottom Half


Third Quarter- The Serena quarter looks good for the four time former champ until a possible Kvitova QF which everyone will hope materialises. After her R1 loss at Paris, the American must surely be motivated to lay down the gauntlet on the grass as she has so many times before, and i'd wager that until Kvitova nobody will stop her. Errani in the fourth round would be a struggle on clay, but Williams game will be far too big for the diminutive Italian on the grass, whilst Kvitova might struggle but should get by flat hitter Cibulkova at the same stage.

Winner- Serena Williams (but her 3 set match with Kvitova in the quarters will be match of the tournament)

Fourth Quarter- Many interesting names sit in the last quarter, with Woznaicki, Bartoli and Vika sitting above the likes of Kuznetsova and Ivanovic who could realistically do some damage on the lawns. Wozniacki doesn't have the firepower and aggression for grass, and i think she'll fall to Sveta in R3. Vinci could trick her way past Bartoli in the 3rd round, but if Marion escapes her then she'll do enough to get to the quarters. Facing her there, well probably Vika who has a clear run to the last 16 where it would take a consistent Ivanovic to knock her off, and we haven't seen that in forever. There, i get a feeling Bartoli makes it a match, but is beaten by Vika's superior movement and clutch play.

Winner- Victoria Azarenka

Semi Finals

Sharapova bts Na
Williams bts Azarenka

Dream Final: Williams bts Sharapova 6-3, 7-5

So my guess is that this familiar sight will greet us at the end of another Wimbledon campaign. Predictable? Perhaps, but i expect it to be one hell of a ride to get here!

King Murray falters at Queens

The ever impressive Nicholas Mahut added another big scalp to his list of victims on a grass court, by beating British favourite Andy Murray in the Scots first round, and only pre Wimbledon tune-up at Queens club.

The 30 year old Frenchman best know for his epic match on the grass with Isner a couple of years ago, played tennis defying his advanced years, leaping around the court, and bounding to the net, playing a brand of tennis reminiscent of Borg and Mcenroe from years gone by. Probably the trickiest kind of player Murray could have drawn for his first grass match since 2011, Mahut's big serve and crispy volleys were too tough to handle and the 2007 finalist ultimately progressed over the top seed in a tiebreak third set. 


With the hopes of a nation once again resting solely on his shoulders for another year at SW19, Murray now has to go into his home grand slam with only one competitive grass court match, surely not ideal preparation for a charge towards winning his first major. After the match, Murray himself was quick to point out that Djokovic and others are heading into Wimbledon light, and that his 2012 schedule thus far means he's hardly been short of tennis, so who knows maybe an early loss at Queens will be just the tonic he needs to go into Wimbledon refreshed and ready for glory. Something tells me that the British press will fail to see that light at the end of the tunnel!


Better news for Murray this week, was that he was by no means the only seed to bow out early, with both Tsonga and Tipsarevic losing their opening matches to much lower ranked opponents. Both the number 2 and 3 seeds were upset in three close sets, emphasizing the beauty of the grass court swing particularly in the best of 3 format. The quick surface, low bounce and specialist players mean shock defeats are much more likely than on a more predictable surface like hard courts. All 3 players come from the French having made the fourth round or better, and have had considerably less time to get their grass court feet under them than some of their opponents this week. 


Notable names still left in the draw include 2010 champion Sam Querrey, David Nalbandian the Wimbledon finalist 10 long years ago, and perrenial French underachiever Julien Bennateau. My money is on Nalbandian to sneak out another title and potentially turn that momentum into a decent result at SW19.




Here's a look at the grass court events at Queens, including Mahut/Murray.

DJT

Ten predictions for the Grass Court Season!

Exams and end of Uni celebrations have meant this blog has been inactive for much too long. Revision, festivals, and other such activities barely allowed me time to watch the action at Roland Garros, much less blog about it, but now as my long British Summer begins, so again does my blog, just in time for (in my opinion) the best tournament of the year- Wimbledon !


Speaking of the French, what a topsy turvy, up and down tournament that was. On the woman's side, the form player of the Clay swing Maria Sharapova held firm to capture her fourth slam and complete the career set, but  Azarenka, Na and both Williams sisters disappointed , in what has become a remarkably consistent trend for top players in the womens game in recent years. Top marks for Sharapova though. It's been no secret that the last few years have been tough for her both on the injury, and confidence front, but it's great to see a truly hard working woman back at the top of her sport.


As almost everyone expected Rafa Nadal was nigh on impossible to stop in his quest for a record breaking 7th French title, well except for a brief collapse in set 3 against Djokovic, but we'll let him off with a few nerves against his 2011 nemesis. Barring Rafa's miraculous clay consistency, the remaining memebers of "the big 4" played their worst majors in a long time. Both Djokovic and Federer lost sets left right and centre before the quarters, never usually making a habit of that in the majors, whilst Murray after reaching the semi's last year went out rather flatly in four sets to Ferrer. Top marks in this however for the insurmountable Rafa, and the returning American Brian Baker who looked like he belonged on the court Phillipe Chatrier.


Now, after a long stretch of tournaments on all sorts of different colours of clay, we reach the grass season, which i'm sure we all hope isn't suddenly played on pink turf! Such a short period of the season, and such a specialist surface usually plays out in a very predictable fashion, so here's my (educated) stab at what's in store over the next few weeks:


1) The winner of the mens single's title at Wimbledon 2012 will DEFINATELY be one of either Djokovic, Nadal, or Federer. (sorry Andy Murray)
2) The womens singles champion will NOT be a first time major winner.
3) However the winner will DEFINATELY NOT be Samantha Stosur, Fran Schiavone, Ana Ivanovic, Sveta Kuznetsova, or the world no.1 Azarenka!
4) Nicolas Mahut will invariably draw John Isner.
5) Venus and Serena will be on the same side of the draw for the first time since 2005.
6) Neither the mens winner nor the womans winner will repeat their victory at the Olympics, 3 weeks after Wimbledon ends.
7) Laura Robson will get to the third round in the womans main draw.
8) At least one whole day at this years Championships will be lost to rain.
9) The womans singles champion will be four time former champ Serena Williams.
10) The mens singles champion will be Novak Djokovic.




So there we have it, a few thoughts about the grass season ahead, not really touching on the Olympics, which is being saved for a special after Wimbledon. Hope you've all enjoyed the blog, nice to be back blogging, and bring on the grass!

DJT